CONTROL OF THE SENATE – TOUGH FOR REPUBLICANS:  AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  While there is guarded optimism that the GOP can take the House in November, predictions about the Senate are more guarded.  It's a very tough road.  Rasmussen reports:

New polling from Washington shifts that state’s Senate race from Toss-Up to Leans Democratic. Earlier today new polling from Pennsylvania shifted that state’s Senate race from Leans Republican to Toss-Up status.

With three months to go, Rasmussen Reports polling shows that Republicans are poised to pick up Democratic-held Senate seats in three states— Arkansas, Indiana and North Dakota. One other is leaning that way--Delaware, Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln is the only incumbent senator currently projected to lose a seat. The others are open-seat races following retirements by Democratic incumbents.

At the moment, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column.

Currently, there are just five states in the Toss-Up category. Outside of the Toss-Ups, projections indicate that Democrats can probably count on having 51 Senate seats after Election Day, while Republicans will hold 44.

Four of the five Toss-up states are currently Democratic seats, while one is held by the GOP.
Among the four Democratic seats in the Toss-Up category, three are open seat races (Colorado, Illinois, and Pennsylvania). The Democratic incumbent in the Toss-Up category is Russ Feingold of Wisconsin.

The Republican Toss-Up is found in Florida, where Republican Marco Rubio is essentially even with Independent Charlie Crist.

COMMENT:   In a way, this is disappointing.  In my view, the Senate is more important than the House because it confirms Supreme Court justices.  And it appears the GOP will fall short in the Senate, at least if the election were held today.

But it's not being held today, and a little fight from our side wouldn't hurt.  The tossup states can be won.  By definition, they're very close.

August 1, 2010